Infinity War box office

Box Office: 'Avengers: Infinity War' Tops $300M Domestic, $800M Global

Avengers: Infinity War earned another $23.4 million in North America yesterday, dropping a mere 5% from yesterday’s $24.7m Monday gross. That’s right in line with the 6.5% Monday-to-Tuesday drop for The Avengers back in May of 2012. That it is keeping its day-to-day drops in line with Walt Disney's first Avengers flick despite being a threequel (or part 19) and snagging much bigger numbers is an impressive sign. And yeah, the film has earned $305.9m in five days of release, between Black Panther ($263m) and Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($325m) in terms of five-day totals.

The Force Awakens made so much money so quickly that it shouldn’t necessarily be used as a comparison point for any other release save for Star Wars IX or (maybe) Avatar 2. And while Avengers 3 is currently 16-17% ahead of The Last Jedi ($261m by day five) and Black Panther ($263m by day five). Even when adjusted for inflation, the Russos’ IMAX blockbuster is way ahead of the $287m adjusted five-day total of Universal/Comcast Corp.'s Jurassic World ($258m in 2015). At this rate, the film should end its first week (and enter its second weekend) with around $340m.

I still think we’re looking at a $105 million-$130 million second-weekend, although anything over $111.65m (-56.6%) gives it the second-best second weekend. It probably won’t hold well enough (-42%) to best The Force Awakens’ $149.201m second-weekend gross. And, yeah, it’ll join the somewhat infamous $100m+ losers club (the rare movies that have fallen more than $100m between weekends). Nonetheless, I’m sure Kevin Feige and friends will be all busted up about an over/under $460m ten-day total. Passing Age of Ultron’s unadjusted $458m domestic gross by the end of its second weekend would be a nice grace note.

Avengers: Infinity War earned $65 million overseas, giving it $505m overseas and $808m worldwide. That puts it on a path to possibly top $900m tomorrow and $1 billion as early as Friday. If it pulls that off, and this Friday marks the film’s opening day in Russia, it’ll have passed the magic milestone on day ten of release, two days faster than Star Wars: The Force Awakens.

Beyond that, it’s just a matter how high it climbs before it opens in China a week from Friday. Age of Ultron snagged $240 million in China three years ago. It’s no guarantee that Infinity War will do likewise (or better), but I think it’s safe to say that this third Avengers movie should flirt with at least the $190m that Civil War pulled in two years ago. Does this mean it’s time to talk about the possibility of Infinity War topping Avatar in North America or $2 billion worldwide? Not quite, as it may well just play like a “normal” movie, especially after Deadpool 2 opens, and end up with “just” over/under $705m.

After all, Disney must eventually start concentrating on Solo: A Star Wars Story which screens for press in LA right as Avengers: Infinity War opens in China. That $705 million guestimate would be just over/under the inflation-adjusted domestic total of The Avengers ($623 million in 2012/$706m adjusted). But for now, it’s a matter of how much it can earn, especially with an extra week of “summer play” before the rest of the competition shows up. But it’s hard to look at these figures and not presume that the Avengers are heading to infinity… and beyond.